Projected Water Scarcity and Hydrological Extremes in the Yellow River Basin in the 21st Century under SSP-RCP Scenarios

This study investigated the potential impacts of climate change on water scarcity and hydrological extremes in Yellow River Basin near-term (2026–2050), mid-term (2051–2075), long-term (2076–2100) periods under three combined pathways Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Representative Concentration (RCPs) SSP1–2.6, SSP2–45, SSP5–8.5 relative to reference period (1986–2010), based runoff simulation through Huayuankou station using HBV-D model, which was forced by a statistically downscaling dataset. The results indicate that shortage would still threaten because annual will remain below 1000 m3/year, although be alleviated some degree. More larger floods happen summer 21st century, especially scenario. Hydrological droughts occur during July–October, extreme likely exceed historical largest magnitudes July August long term